My Libby crystal ball

It's been a pretty memorable week in the world of Washington politics. But, the more I think about it, we can add "sad" and "injustice" to the never ending list of adjectives that should be applied to the Scooter Libby trial.

I won't hold the suspense - my prediction is that Libby never spends a day in jail. It's already obvious that his attorneys are planning to drag this out as long as possible. I'm not begrudging Libby that - it's his constitutional right to an appeal. But, I've read on some sites that Libby's final fate may not be determined until October 2008. Like that would be a surprise. Just like it was a huge surprise that the reading of the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial was moved up to the Sunday before the election in November 2006.

Following the November 2008 election, President Bush has nothing to lose, and neither will has party, regardless of election results. Much like the president's father did on his way out of office with six Iran-Contra figures, Dubya may simply pardon Libby.

More on a potential pardon in a bit.

There are several tragedies in this case. First and foremost is Valerie Plame (right, with her husband, former Iraq Ambassador Joseph Wilson), who did her duty as a civil servant for 20 years for the Central Intelligence Agency. She was outed by senior members of the Bush administration including Libby, Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, in retaliation for her husband's op-ed column in The New York Times. Wilson's column blasted the Bush administration for its wanton desire to go to war in Iraq.

[Quick aside: Wilson was sent by the Bush administration to Niger to investigate whether Iraq had sought Uranium yellowcake there for its alleged nuclear weapons program. It took Wilson about five minutes to discover that the allegations were based on forged documents and were unequivocally inaccurate. Despite Wilson's findings, Bush used the now infamous 16 words in his January 2003 State of the Union Address: The British Government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.

Bush said these words against the advice of Wilson, the CIA, the State Department and numerous other agencies and individuals. When Wilson's column appeared in the New York Times, the Bush administration was determined to not let him get away with it. So, revenge was taken on Wilson by conservative columnist Robert Novak's public revelation of Plame as a CIA agent. We now know that Novak was fed this information by Rove and Libby. Revealing the identity of a CIA agent is a felony. For more reading on the Plame Affair, go Here.]

Testimony in this case revealed in intricate detail that Rove and Cheney were behind Plame's outing. However, the prosecutor in the case, Patrick Fitzgerald (above), has announced that he doesn't plan to pursue any other charges in the case, despite the revelations that Cheney and Rove were right in the heart of the decision to smear Wilson and Plame.

I only have one word for Fitzgerald's decision to not pursue the matter further: Why?

Fitzgerald is a colossal disappointment, to say the least. I won't call him a failure, because he did win a conviction of Libby (above, with his wife, Harriet Grant).

I have a hard time believing that Fitzgerald is not taking marching orders from someone, somewhere. How else can one explain his failure to pursue chargers against Cheney and Rove? I'm not hoping for a political witch hunt here, (c. 1998), but what I do hope for is justice. Cheney and Rove broke the law. So, why aren't charges being filed?

There's now a big movement afoot on the 'Net, most notably on right-wing blogs and even some nationally respected publications, such as the National Review, to pardon Libby. The people who are hoping for a Libby pardon are short on memory and long on hypocrisy.

I'm not without sympathy for Libby on some levels, but he still deserves to be punished. I have no doubt that Libby is being hung out to dry and is being used as a scapegoat for this incident.

Libby should be punished because he was a willing participant in outing Plame, period. It should be noted that Libby wasn't convicted of outing Plame, he was convicted of obstruction of justice and lying to a grand jury. Without the testimony from various witnesses that revealed the activities of Cheney and Rove, Libby would never have been convicted. This isn't nuclear astrophysics, people.

Didn't we impeach a president for perjury once? Many Republicans thought that trying to politically lynch President Clinton was a grand idea in 1998. And Clinton's perjury was only over a blowjob, a private matter. Now, when national security and the lives of CIA agents are at the heart of a perjury conviction, a pardon is a terrific idea?!? Clinton may not have inhaled, but it's pretty obvious that some Libby supporters have.

The only hope that cases may be brought against Rove and Cheney will be at Libby's sentencing. If the judge throws the book at him, then perhaps Libby might have some very interesting things to say to federal prosecutors.

But, even that may not happen, if there's been a sweetheart deal between Libby and his former superiors. [Read: Someone from the administration blowing in Libby's ear: "Hey Scooter! If you are found guilty and are sentenced to prison, you'll be pardoned. Now keep your mouth shut."]

If Bush pardons Libby, there may not be any legal recourse, other than voters doing something about it by making the Republican Party suffer... in 2010! The president has the Constitutional right to pardon whomever he likes, and every president has done it. But, there are questions - can he or should he pardon someone who was a senior administration official? Of course, that didn't stop President George H.W. Bush from pardoning Iran-Contra figures Caspar Weinberger, John Poindexter and Elliot Abrams. So, who knows how a pardon or potential pardon could play out?

My favorite part about a pardon for Libby is this - right-wingers who work for Fox State TV like Sean Hannity won't be able to spin a Libby pardon by getting on TV and blabbering something along the lines of, "I don't mean to bring up Clinton, but Marc Rich..."

Why? Because Libby was an attorney for Rich, and he worked for a time behind the scenes to get Rich exonerated following his conviction in 1983 on income tax evasion. (Incidentally, I'm sick to death of hearing about the Marc Rich pardon. Yes, Clinton pardoned him, but it was for tax evasion. A serious crime, but many presidents have pardoned many people for far worse. See the paragraph above, or read about the Nixon pardon. And Clinton did make a condition of the pardon that Rich pay a $100 million fine, and it's not like he doesn't have the money. I've read he's worth well over $1 billion. Oh, and all of those Clinton pardons? Of course, the Republican-controlled Congress appointed Federal Prosecutor Mary Jo White to investigate. Just like Kenneth W. Starr before her, she found nothing amiss about the Clintons.)

There's also a strong possibility that there's some PR at work here, too. It's one of the oldest PR and political tricks in the book, and it goes something like this: Leak a controversial idea to the media, let the outrage come forth, and it will die down by the time we actually do what's being proposed.

The media is dropping the ball on this one - everyone is already acting like a Libby pardon is a inevitability. It cannot be, should not be, and if it does happen, the American public shouldn't take it sitting down. But, only time will tell.

Circle November, 5, 2008, on your '08 calendar when you get one. That's the day after the election, and if the election is decided by the next morning (!), the countdown will be on until the end of the Bush Presidency. (Wait, we already are counting down - 683 days left in this administration!) The countdown will also then be on until the Bush pardons, too.

Fitzgerald photo and one beneath it - AP
Bottom Image "The Counts" - Wonkette