Fighting the War on Error

"You measure a democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists."
- Political & Social Activist Abbie Hoffman (1936-1989)

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Tonight, pay particular attention to the exit polls

I have to confess, I'm already more nervous watching the returns, even at this early hour, than I ever have been while watching any returns in my lifetime, and I've watched them all since 1980. Of course, since '80, there haven't been too many for Democrats to get too excited about.

Anyway, it just kills me that this point gets so little play in the media: why the exit polling sometimes varies widely from the actual results. Actually, there are many reasons for this - principally because the data isn't always interpreted correctly, but how about this one - votes not being counted correctly, and in some cases, the vote being hacked. I'm not a conspiracy nut, but there is plenty, and I do mean plenty of evidence that this will happen again tonight, much like it did in '00 and '04. Think about it - it's not complicated:

If 550 people out of 1000 vote for Obama, and answer that way in exit polls, one would suggest (with a margin of error for a variety of reasons, of course) that Obama would win, 55% - 45%, or something close to that. And exit polling is primarily how the networks project the winners of states. But, in '00, and to a lesser extent, '04, the exit polling proved to be inaccurate, and in some cases very inaccurate.

Here's hoping that this trend doesn't continue tonight.

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